Hyde-Smith is favored, but the margin depends on who turns out
Our model gives Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) a 95% chance against Scott Colom (D), with a projected margin of R+11.7. The 90% range runs from R+0.1 to R+23.2. Raters, prediction markets and our model all agree on the favorite. They differ on how close it will be.
Blended with raters and markets: 92%. Kalshi 88.5%, Polymarket 86.5%. Independent Ty Pinkins is also on the ballot.
Polls close in …
Key takeaways
Turnout matters most for the Senate
In the 2018 Hyde-Smith–Espy runoff, Black-majority counties kept turnout much closer to 2020 levels than white rural counties did. Each 10% change in relative Black turnout moves our Senate projection about 4 points.
Read the explainerEight counties to watch
Forrest, Lowndes, Lafayette, Warren, Oktibbeha, Pike, Panola and Copiah are the largest counties our model projects within 10 points. Six of them voted for Espy in 2020 and Wicker in 2024.
What to watch Tuesday2027 could be close
Reeves won by just 3.2 points in 2023, while other statewide Republicans averaged R+17.8. With a strong nominee, Democrats can be competitive in the open governor's race.
The Reeves gapSenate 2026 projection by county
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